Posted by
John Terry on Thursday, August 14, 2008 3:50:34 PM
A Cadillac that cost $30,000 in 2008 would have cost $12,716.45 back in
1981. I learned this from a Web site called The Inflation Calculator
(
www.westegg.com/inflation),
which I highly recommend to anyone obsessing over the cost of a gallon of
gasoline, which seems to be just about everyone these days.
It's
baffling. A loaf of bread that goes for $1.29 now was only 55-cents in
1981, yet I haven't seen any headlines lamenting the record price of that
commodity, nor have I heard any calls for the government to step in and do
something about the rapacious tactics of Big Bread, or to saddle it with a
"windfall profits" tax, as is now being proposed by Barack Obama - a tax
which would, of course, have the effect of raiding the college or retirement
savings of millions of ordinary Americans who have invested in oil stocks,
without reducing the price of gas by a penny.
With some exceptions -
electronic gizmos, for example - everything costs more than it did in 1981,
and the rate of increase for gasoline hasn't been, generally speaking, any
higher or faster than it has been for anything else. And I pick 1981 because
that year, gasoline was the most expensive, until very recently, it had ever
been: $1.36 a gallon, which would be $3.21 today. Even with the recent price
spike that has media outlets in such a frenzy, the outlay for gas as a
percentage of disposable income, the only measurement that really matters,
is roughly the same, now vs. then. By contrast, the costs of health care and
a college education, as just two examples, have long since left normal
inflation rates in their rear-view mirror, and the percentage of disposal
income they soak up is something approximating disastrous.
Yet, the
outrage is directed at oil companies, spawning, among other things,
congressional hearings that put oil execs in the dock so preening
politicians can take potshots at them, television news stories in which we
see angry consumers expressing shock and horror at the outrages being done
to them, and silly Internet schemes involving one-day gasoline boycotts. Go
figure. And the interesting thing about gasoline, as opposed to, say,
bread, is that the price of gasoline may well be considerably lower by the
end of the summer than it is today, because the price of gasoline does
that - fluctuates. And so, it will again be cheaper than it was more than a
quarter of a century ago.
It's hard to say what makes Big Oil such a
lightning rod. Maybe it's the popular perception of the industry as being
under the control of some Master Manipulator who moves the price of gas up
and down according to whim, as distinguished from the reality, which is that
gas prices are buffeted about by a complex set of market-driven
circumstances mainly involving perceptions of current and future
availability. Moreover, the oil industry operates on profit margins that are
not particularly high - lower by quite a bit than, for example, the
pharmaceutical and financials services industries. But because Big Oil
sells a heckuva lot of gasoline, those relatively small profit margin
dollars add up to a big number.
Do higher gasoline prices weigh most
heavily on the poor? Well, yes, of course. Everything weighs most heavily
on the poor. But Gasoline, as distinguished from any number of other
necessary commodities, has remained pretty consistent for the past several
decades in the amount of pain it inflicts on the budgets of poor people, and
on everybody else, for that matter. In other words, gasoline prices at
their current level are not much harder on anybody than they were
twenty-five years ago.
None of that stops ambitious politicians - is
there any other kind? - from firing up the g-word - gouging -- whenever they
think they can get some mileage out of it, and then demanding that all those
greedy 401K owners be brought to heel by confiscating the "windfall profits"
they're setting aside to educate their children.